Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
