From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”