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The direst projected effects of the global heating for the UK have been outlined by researchers, ranging from a scorching 4C rise in temperatures to a 2-metre increase in sea levels. Another scenario predicts a plunge of 6C in temperature following the collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would profoundly upset farming and power requirements.

Plausible Outcomes, Not Predictions

These effects, a number of which are connected to climate tipping points, are viewed as low probability but credible. The researchers explained that these projections addressed a shortfall in forecasting that had left the UK unprepared for extreme outcomes.

"The worst-case scenarios we have detailed should not be seen as certainties, but they are plausible," said the professor who directed the research. "Britain has been making preparations in the absence of the frameworks to plan for catastrophic outcomes. We've now supplied planners what they need to get ready for future conditions they pray never occur, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Suite of Extreme Weather Possibilities

A second set of dire projections sets out the projected severity of extreme weather between now and the close of the 2100s. These show that thermometer readings could rocket in certain periods by up to 6C above average, while precipitation could be triple standard measurements.

The chance of the extreme scenarios happening remains uncertain due to unknown factors about what action will be taken to tackle global warming and how the climate system will respond. This research was likened to defence planning or stress tests for financial systems.

Key Scenario Details

• 4C Temperature Rise: Worldwide averages soaring past 4C by 2100 could transpire if international cooperation breaks down or if vicious cycles like the Amazon basin becoming a net carbon source release its vast reserves of carbon. This would lead to extreme and prolonged heat domes and water shortages affecting the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A key circulation system, the North Atlantic current, is weakening and losing stability due to ocean warming. A full shutdown starting around 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Crop production would face immense difficulties and water resources would be fundamentally reshaped," noted the professor.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if polar ice in the polar regions collapse rapidly, submerging low-lying areas. In contrast to the other scenarios, this threat is already known by infrastructure experts.
• Pollution Paradox: Temperatures could also be increased by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is rapidly cleaned up. This counterintuitive effect occurs because pollution particles from industrial activity scatter sunlight from reaching the ground.

Preparing for the Worst

The severe models could be used to inform the construction of major projects, including new towns, nuclear power stations and urban drainage systems. Understanding these environmental threats could also hasten the drive to cut carbon pollution.

The research formulated the severe projections using a blend of observed and historical experience, climate models and scientific theory. The scenarios omit broader worldwide issues such as the global food shortages and resource wars.

The research was commissioned as part of a official risk assessment framework. Independent analyses have stated that not enough attention was being given to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

Official experts has recommended that the UK must "adapt to 2C" and assess the risks for four degrees. Previous adaptation plans have been described as being "very weak" by some observers.

An official statement commented: "Global warming is at the heart of the country's focus, both adapting for the future and becoming a renewable energy leader. It is crucial that the UK is ready for the impacts."